Gasoline Vehicle Growth Limits Electric Vehicle Effectiveness in Achieving Washington State's 2050 Sustainability Goals
Taira Nakano
The American School in Japan, Tokyo, Japan
Publication date: May 31, 2025
The American School in Japan, Tokyo, Japan
Publication date: May 31, 2025
DOI: http://doi.org/10.34614/JIYRC2025I02
ABSTRACT
Transportation accounts for a substantial part of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and poses a vital challenge for climate change mitigation. Electric vehicles (EV), a zero-emission alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles, have been widely proposed as a potential solution to reduce the carbon footprint within the transportation sector. Many jurisdictions invest enormously in EV infrastructure and give corresponding incentives, but whether EVs will fully mitigate carbon emissions is unclear. Washington State, having an energy ecosystem dominated by hydroelectric power, presents a unique case study for evaluating the effectiveness of EV adoption in emissions reduction. We investigated the potential of EV adoption to reduce transportation-related emissions using Washington State data from January 2020 to July 2024. Here, we show that while EV adoption contributes to emissions reduction, it alone cannot achieve Washington's ambitious goal of 95% greenhouse gas reduction by 2050. Our analysis shows that growth in the gasoline-powered vehicle population and the carbon footprint of electricity generation offset the potential emissions benefits of EVs, challenging the prevailing narrative of EVs as a comprehensive climate solution. In addition to scaling the current infrastructure, jurisdictions need to reduce the purchases of gasoline-powered vehicles and subsequently incentivize more sustainable energy production once the population has shifted to EVs. Addressing climate change requires integrated strategies that include more profound systemic transformations beyond technological substitutions in energy, transportation, and urban planning.
Transportation accounts for a substantial part of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and poses a vital challenge for climate change mitigation. Electric vehicles (EV), a zero-emission alternative to internal combustion engine vehicles, have been widely proposed as a potential solution to reduce the carbon footprint within the transportation sector. Many jurisdictions invest enormously in EV infrastructure and give corresponding incentives, but whether EVs will fully mitigate carbon emissions is unclear. Washington State, having an energy ecosystem dominated by hydroelectric power, presents a unique case study for evaluating the effectiveness of EV adoption in emissions reduction. We investigated the potential of EV adoption to reduce transportation-related emissions using Washington State data from January 2020 to July 2024. Here, we show that while EV adoption contributes to emissions reduction, it alone cannot achieve Washington's ambitious goal of 95% greenhouse gas reduction by 2050. Our analysis shows that growth in the gasoline-powered vehicle population and the carbon footprint of electricity generation offset the potential emissions benefits of EVs, challenging the prevailing narrative of EVs as a comprehensive climate solution. In addition to scaling the current infrastructure, jurisdictions need to reduce the purchases of gasoline-powered vehicles and subsequently incentivize more sustainable energy production once the population has shifted to EVs. Addressing climate change requires integrated strategies that include more profound systemic transformations beyond technological substitutions in energy, transportation, and urban planning.
